A Midwest ag economist is predicting a return to profitability for pork producers. That’s good news. The not-so-good news is that it won’t likely happen until next year. Purdue University’s Chris Hurt is forecasting losses of $10 to $20 per-head this fall and winter, while projecting profits of $5 to $10 next spring and summer.

Uncertainties center primarily on the trade dispute with China and that country’s attempt to control African Swine Fever. In addition, tariffs on U.S. pork to Mexico and China remain in place despite the recent U-S trade deal with those two countries. Hurt says one certainty is that pork supplies will be at record levels and an expanding U.S. hog herd probably cannot be sustained. Iowa is by far the country’s leading pork producer. The USDA reported last month that Iowa now has a record 23.6 million pigs.